SpaceX navigates Q3 anomalies, starting ambitious Q4 goals

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SpaceX’s record-breaking streak of successful launches and landings ended during the third quarter of 2024, having suffered a failure during launch with Falcon 9’s second stage and a Falcon 9 first stage landing failure. More recently, a third issue arose during the disposal of a Falcon 9 second stage after it had successfully completed its mission.

Despite this, the company was able to carry out missions like Polaris Dawn, its riskiest human spaceflight mission to date, which broke several records and achieved some firsts for SpaceX and worldwide as well. During this period of time, SpaceX’s Starlink also saw the 7,000th satellite launched into orbit and passed four million users worldwide. 

The third quarter was also marked by SpaceX’s preparations for Starship’s fifth flight which has been delayed multiple times due to regulatory approval. The company has also built up a second Starship launch tower at the company’s launch site in Starbase, Texas.

Falcon and Dragon

During the third quarter of 2024, SpaceX experienced three different failures of varying nature that slowed down the company’s launch rate from what was previously planned. 

The first failure took place during the launch of the Starlink Group 9-3 mission back in July 2024. While the first stage for that Falcon 9 launch performed nominally and was successfully recovered, the second stage suffered an anomaly during launch that put a batch of 20 Starlink satellites into a rapidly decaying orbit. The company made several efforts to push them into a higher and more stable orbit to save as many as possible but eventually all decayed within a week of the launch. 

Shortly after the issue took place, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced it required SpaceX to undergo a mishap investigation. For SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, which operates under Parts 413, 415, 417, and 440 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), a mishap investigation is triggered when an issue during flight falls within the definition of mishap as stated in 14 CFR 401.5. 

SpaceX quickly wrapped up its investigation, stating that the cause of the failure was a crack on a liquid oxygen sense line for the Merlin Vacuum engine on the second stage. The crack allowed this liquid oxygen to leak about two minutes into the engine’s burn. 

While the second stage successfully reached its parking orbit, the leak had excessively cooled several of the engine’s components, including those that allow the delivery of ignition fluid. This prevented the engine from reigniting correctly to circularize its orbit before deploying the Starlink satellites, stranding them in a lower-than-intended orbit. 

This mishap broke Falcon’s record of 335 consecutive successful flights without a failure, a record for any family of rockets in history. 

SpaceX resumed Falcon launches approximately 15 days after the anomaly, the quickest return to flight for the company to that date. This was possible because the company had requested from the FAA a public safety determination in order to return to flight without completing the mishap investigation.

The company suffered another issue in late August when a veteran Falcon 9 booster, B1062, was lost during landing on its 23rd flight. The first stage successfully flew through ascent and reentry but had a hard landing on the deck of SpaceX’s droneship A Shortfall Of Gravitas. 

Although SpaceX has not released any official information on what caused this, NSF understands that this issue was not due to the longevity of the booster, which was the flight leader of the fleet at the time. The FAA required a mishap investigation once more but SpaceX was able to quickly resume flights just three days after the incident.

The third issue during the third quarter came up after the launch of the company’s ninth crew rotation mission to the International Space Station, Crew-9. 

After Crew Dragon’s separation, the Falcon 9 second stage was planned to perform a disposal burn for reentry over the Pacific Ocean in an area east of New Zealand. This disposal burn, while it did bring the second stage down to the ocean, did not bring it over the planned safety area.

SpaceX has not yet disclosed the cause of this issue but the company did pause launches while it investigated the anomaly. Once again, this anomaly required a mishap investigation which the agency later said SpaceX submitted on Oct. 4. 

The FAA eventually authorized the launch of a Falcon 9 carrying the European Space Agency’s Hera spacecraft which took place on Oct. 7. This launch did not include a disposal burn for the second stage as it was planned to be inserted into an interplanetary trajectory, mitigating the potential risk of reentering over populated areas. The FAA eventually closed all three mishap investigations on Oct 11., clearing Falcon 9 to resume regular flights. 

Despite the mishaps causing a slow in the launch tempo, SpaceX was once again the most active launch provider in the world during the third quarter of the year, launching 27 times in that period and surpassing whole countries like China. At the current cadence, the company could close out the year with as many as 125 launches of its Falcon family of rockets. 

Launcher origin Launches Successes Failures Partial Failures
US SpaceX 94 93 1 0
Others 16 16 0 0
China 46 44 1 1
Russia 11 11 0 0
Japan 5 4 1 0
India 3 3 0 0
Iran 3 3 0 0
Europe 2 1 0 1
North Korea 1 0 1 0
Total 181 175 4 2

The 27 missions during the third quarter featured missions for commercial companies like the launch of the Türksat 6A satellite, the launch of another pair of Maxar’s WorldView Legion satellites, and the launch of the first BlueBird Block 1 satellites for AST Space Mobile. 

SpaceX also launched missions for foreign governments such as the Arctic Satellite Broadband Mission for Space Norway and another pair of Galileo satellites for the European Commission. 

The company supported two missions to the International Space Station (ISS) as well, carrying Northrop Grumman’s 21st Cygnus resupply spacecraft and SpaceX’s ninth crew rotation mission to the orbiting laboratory. 

This last mission was marked not only by the post-deployment issue on Falcon 9’s second stage but also because of the crew complement and new plan for the flight. In late August, NASA decided to change the crew complement of the mission from four crewmembers to two. 

This decision was taken due to the agency’s concerns with Boeing’s Starliner Calypso spacecraft which had launched on the company’s Crew Flight Test mission back in June. Starliner Calypso had carried onboard NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams to the ISS but developed problems on the way to the station.

After two months of continued testing and investigation, NASA decided to send Calypso down to Earth uncrewed and return both astronauts on the SpaceX Crew-9 mission. Crew-9 was therefore launched only with NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Roscosmos cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov, leaving behind former Crew-9 Commander Zena Cardman and former Crew-9 Mission Specialist Stephanie Wilson. 

NASA and SpaceX also announced that the Crew-8 and Crew-9 missions were the first Crew Dragon missions approved to use the capsule’s SuperDraco thrusters in an emergency during landing. This would only take place in the unlikely event that all main parachutes fail to deploy and slow down the capsule during descent.

SpaceX also carried out another human spaceflight mission, Polaris Dawn. This mission marked the first time a commercial company had carried out a spacewalk in orbit which made use of SpaceX’s latest extravehicular activity (EVA) suit. 

The mission also used SpaceX’s “plaser” system — which stands for “plug and laser.” This system, commercialized by the company last year, allows spacecraft to communicate with the Starlink constellation of satellites through its laser link communications. 

This provides a much higher data throughput than what’s traditionally available through the standard Starlink user antenna down on Earth. The Polaris Dawn crew members were able to use this system multiple times across the mission to make video calls and communicate with their families and friends while in orbit. 

Polaris Dawn also set distance records, traveling the furthest away from Earth since Apollo 17 in 1972. Mission Specialist Sarah Gillis and Medical Officer Anna Menon also set a new record for the furthest distance from Earth for any woman. 

During the third quarter of 2024, SpaceX also continued its smallsat rideshare program, flying 116 payloads on the Transporter-11 mission. 

All of these missions were possible thanks to the company’s fleet of Falcon boosters. This fleet, while varying in size over time, always contains roughly 15 boosters in total, with about 10 of them flying from Florida and the rest flying from California. 

In this period of the year, SpaceX flew several boosters past their 20th flight with booster B1062 becoming the first one to fly 23 times. Unfortunately, as pointed out earlier in this article, the booster did not succeed in its landing and was lost. B1062 had supported missions such as Inspiration4 and Axiom-1 and still holds the overall turnaround time record for the fleet at just over 21 days. 

Other boosters, such as B1067 and B1063, also crossed the 20th flight mark during the third quarter of the year standing at 22 flights and 20 flights in total respectively. B1067 became the center of attention on its 22nd flight which supported the launch of two Galileo spacecraft.

During a previous launch of Galileo satellites, SpaceX had to expend booster B1060 in order to meet performance demands for the mission. However, through data analysis, optimizations in the trajectory, and tweaks to the rocket’s design, SpaceX was able to gain back enough performance to be able to land the first stage.

This landing, though, would see the highest reentry forces and heating of any Falcon 9 booster. B1067 completed its ascent burn with a speed about nine percent higher than normal, which translated into a 20 percent higher reentry heating before landing. Despite this, the booster was able to successfully land on the droneship and was recovered in one piece.

This period of the year also saw the debut of a new booster, B1085, which was originally planned to debut on Crew-9. However, due to the mission re-planning, SpaceX decided to fly this booster first on a Starlink mission before its flight on Crew-9. 

Coming up in the final quarter of the year, SpaceX is expected to fly up to 15 customer missions and there will be highly important ones such as the launch of NASA’s Europa Clipper. This mission will see a Falcon Heavy rocket expending all of its boosters to push the six-tonne spacecraft into interplanetary space.

Commercial customers will also be on the schedule with SpaceX expected to launch the next pair of WorldView Legion satellites for Maxar, another batch of 20 OneWeb satellites, the Koreasat 6A and SXM-9 communications satellites, and potentially the first batch of Astranis satellites as well.

SpaceX is also expected to support the launches of more foreign government satellites such as India’s GSAT-20, Spain’s Spainsat-NG I, and South Korea’s third satellite of its 425 military project. 

The company will also continue its smallsat rideshare program with the upcoming Transporter-12 and Bandwagon-2 missions and is set to fly another cargo resupply mission to the ISS in early November as well.

Starlink

As usual, the main driver for SpaceX’s launch cadence has been the company’s Starlink constellation. SpaceX launched 17 missions dedicated to Starlink during the third quarter of the year, or about two-thirds of the number of launches that it supported during the same period of time.

Additionally, SpaceX also flew the NROL-113 mission as part of the National Reconnaissance Office’s proliferated space architecture program. It is believed missions like this fly Starshield satellites, SpaceX’s solution for government satellite applications using the Starlink satellite bus. Up to three more of these missions are expected to launch in what remains of the year. 

The third quarter of 2024 also saw the debut of Starlink Group 11 missions which seem to consist of Starlink v2 Mini satellites flying into a 53-degree inclination orbit, very similar to Starlink Group 10 missions. 

Starlink Gen 1 Starlink Gen 2
Missions v1.0, Groups 2, 3, and 4 Group 5 Group 6 Group 7 Group 8 Group 9 Group 10 Group 11
Orbit 540-570km, 53-97.6º 530 km at 43º 525km at 53º 525km at 53º Unknown altitude 53º Unknown altitude 53º Unknown altitude 53º
Satellites launched 4015 699 1387 389 205 163 181 23
Satellites reentered 542 14 53 4 2 26 1 0
Satellites in operational orbit 3330 682 1297 369 190 84 178 21

(Status of Starlink constellation from Jonathan McDowell data as of Oct. 6, 2024)

SpaceX also launched the 7,000th Starlink satellite and the constellation passed the 6,000 satellites in operational orbit. The company’s direct-to-cell constellation also grew substantially with now up to 233 of these satellites launched into orbit — although 13 of them were lost on the Starlink Group 9-3 missions.

The company’s direct-to-cell satellite constellation was put in widespread use recently in the aftermath of hurricanes Helene and Milton which devastated areas of the southeast of the United States. While the constellation is still not complete, these direct-to-cell satellites can provide emergency communications on the ground. 

SpaceX also received approval to test its direct-to-cell satellite technology in New Zealand and the states of Oregon, Nevada, and Kansas. Starlink also passed the 4 million users worldwide and won a major contract from United Airlines to use it on its fleet of aircraft starting next year. 

Coming up in the next quarter of the year, SpaceX will continue to grow its Starlink constellation with older groups of missions such as Starlink Group 6 missions making a comeback. 

SpaceX also recently filed a modification to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) with an updated plan for the second-generation constellation of Starlink. This modification requests approval from the FCC to launch a new generation of satellites, Starlink v3, with improved hardware and power levels. 

According to the documents provided by SpaceX to the FCC, these improvements and higher power levels would allow the satellites to deliver up to a gigabit per second of internet connectivity. 

Caption: Technical narrative from SpaceX requesting the FCC for a modification of the Starlink second-generation constellation

These satellites would primarily launch on Starship, although the documentation suggests SpaceX would continue launching Starlink satellites on Falcon 9 under this modified plan. What’s not clear is whether this will be using a hypothetical Starlink v3 Mini satellite or using the current Starlink v2 Mini satellites. 

The modified plan also seeks to change the operational orbits for these satellites, with the altitudes being lowered to anywhere between 470 and 480 kilometers. It also requests the FCC to change the inclination for one of the already-approved shells from 33 degrees inclination to 32 degrees.

The company argues this is in order to launch into this shell from Starbase saying “SpaceX requests authority to operate satellites in its 475 km shell at 32 degrees inclination to accommodate upcoming Starship launches of satellites for SpaceX’s Gen2 system from its Starbase launch facilities in Boca Chica, TX. If the Federal Aviation Administration (‘FAA’) does not allow for Starship launches at 32 degrees from Starbase, TX, SpaceX requests for authority to launch into the 28-degree inclination at 475 km altitude”. 

SpaceX has not yet announced when it would first launch Starlink satellites on its Starship rocket but NSF understands this may not happen until the second flight with the second version of the Ship.

Starship

The company spent the third quarter of the year preparing its Starship rocket for the vehicle’s fifth flight.

This flight featured a similar profile to the previous one, with the main difference being that the Super Heavy booster returned to the launch site and landed on the launch tower arms.

Ship 30 saw a complete revamp of its heat shield, with SpaceX teams spending over 12,000 work hours replacing the thermal tiles with tougher and upgraded ones. They also installed a layer of ablative material underneath large portions of these tiles to serve as a backup heat shield.

This flight, however, was delayed from the company’s initial goal of a mid-July flight. First, all the modifications and testing needed to prepare everything for this mission were delayed, and later, the regulatory approval was delayed.

During the third quarter of 2024, SpaceX also made great progress at Starbase’s second launch site. The company built up the second launch tower at Starbase and started work on the foundations for the flame trench that will go on this new launch pad.

Aerial view of the launch site at Starbase showing the progress on the second launch pad. (Credit: Jack Beyer for NSF)

SpaceX also started assembling the new orbital launch mount for this pad and the Ship Quick Disconnect arm, which will supply fluids and power to the upper stage of Starship.

(Lead image: View from Crew Dragon Resilience from orbit during the Polaris Dawn mission. Credit: SpaceX)

The post SpaceX navigates Q3 anomalies, starting ambitious Q4 goals appeared first on NASASpaceFlight.com.



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