Former NASA Boss Bridenstine: US “Highly Unlikely” to Land on Moon Before China

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In a pointed testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine expressed deep concerns about the complexity and feasibility of NASA’s Artemis program, warning that the United States is “highly unlikely” to land astronauts on the Moon before China due to challenges with orbital refueling and an ambitious architecture.

The hearing, titled “There’s a Bad Moon on the Rise: Why Congress and NASA Must Thwart China in the Space Race,” brought together lawmakers from both parties to discuss legislative priorities for NASA’s forward plan.

Bridenstine, who served as NASA chief under President Donald Trump from 2018 to 2021 and now works as managing partner at The Artemis Group, was one of four witnesses, including representatives from the commercial space sector.

The session comes as interim NASA Administrator Sean Duffy pushes forward with the agency’s Moon-to-Mars agenda under President Trump.

Bridenstine highlighted the high costs and sustainability issues with NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, calling it “extraordinarily expensive”, but advocating for its continued use since it’s already developed. He also praised the recent “Big Beautiful Bill,” which secures funding for Artemis 4 and 5 missions using SLS Block 1B and the Orion spacecraft.

However, he stressed a critical gap: notably that the U.S. lacks a ready Lunar Lander.

Under NASA’s Human Landing System (HLS) contracts, two vehicles are in development—SpaceX’s Starship HLS for Artemis 3 and 4, and Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mk2 for Artemis 5.

It took four attempts to achieve all objectives in its V2 (Block 2) ship tests this year. SpaceX has one more flight of this version of the vehicle before moving to launches with V3 on Pad 2.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has predicted a tower catch in as few as three more flights as a major upcoming goal for the test program, but Bridenstine emphasized that rapid reuse is essential for orbital refueling, a key element of the architecture.

SpaceX and NASA’s Artemis program have an upcoming test objective involving Starships “Target” and “Chaser” in an in-space propellant transfer.

“Our complicated architecture requires a dozen or more launches in a short time frame, relies on very challenging technologies that have yet to be developed, like cryogenic in-space refueling, and still needs to be human-rated,” Bridenstine testified.

He added that while Starship’s payload capacity could be transformational, its current complexity “precludes alacrity,” and the U.S. risks falling behind China.

Similar concerns apply to Blue Origin’s system, which also requires multiple refuelings of cryogenic propellants via its Cislunar Transporter. Despite being unproven, successful refueling could enable larger payloads, such as Blue Moon Mk2 delivering up to 30 tonnes one-way or 20 tonnes reusable.
Bridenstine also raised alarms about the environmental and operational disruptions from Starship’s launch cadence.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is finalizing approvals for up to 44 launches per year from Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39A, with SpaceX planning 76 from Space Launch Complex 37, potentially causing significant impacts to the Cape Canaveral area.

“We need Starship to be successful,” he said, but warned of the strain from over 100 launches, tests, and landings.
The former administrator critiqued the Artemis architecture as “extraordinarily complex” and “incredibly strained,” arguing that political shifts have damaged progress. Bridenstine said the program has been “cast to and fro,” harming development.

Bridenstine expressed disagreement with the timing of Starship’s selection as the primary lander for Artemis 3, noting it occurred in April 2021 during a gap between administrators—after his departure on January 20, 2021, and before Bill Nelson’s confirmation on May 3, 2021.

The decision was made by Kathy Lueders, then NASA’s Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations, and now a high-ranking manager with SpaceX Starship program, whom Bridenstine himself had appointed in June 2020.

This followed an initial 2020 selection of three competitors—Blue Origin, Dynetics, and SpaceX—under Bridenstine’s leadership.

“There was a moment in time between the end of Bridenstine and the start of Nelson that this was selected,” he said, adding that NASA bought a “big rocket” instead of a dedicated lander.

“This is an architecture that no NASA administrator that I know of would ever select, and it was selected in the absence of a NASA Administrator.”

Not everyone shares Bridenstine’s pessimism. Jared Isaacman, astronaut and former nominee for NASA Administrator who testified before the same committee months ago, responded on X with an optimistic defense of orbital refueling.

“What I think is incorrect, in my humble view, is poking holes at the complexity of orbital refueling,” Isaacman wrote. “Both Blue Origin’s Mk2 lander and SpaceX’s landers depend on it; private industry is investing heavily in the capability… and when it works, it will change the game in applications well beyond the Moon.

“If all we wanted was another Apollo-style LEM, that would surely have simplified things—but are we trying to repeat 1969?—or pioneer the technologies that will extend America’s ability to explore, discover, and defend in the high ground of space?”

Isaacman acknowledged Artemis challenges, including SLS’s high costs, Orion issues, delayed spacesuits, and unready landers, agreeing there’s a “real chance China could get there before our grand return.” But he argued that complexity is the price of ambition for a sustainable lunar presence, not just a flags-and-footprints mission.
The hearing underscores ongoing debates over NASA’s strategy in the intensifying space race with China, which aims for its own crewed lunar landing by 2030.

As lawmakers consider NASA’s future, this highlights the tension between bold innovation and practical risks. Whether the U.S. can overcome these hurdles remains to be seen; hindsight may reveal the answers in the coming decades.

(Lead Image: Bridenstine’s hearing on Wednesday)

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